Monday, December 18, 2017

Tropical Depression KAI-TAK (URDUJA) Update No. 16

 

Tropical Depression KAI-TAK (URDUJA) Update No. 16

TROPICAL DEPRESSION KAI-TAK (URDUJA) UPDATE NO. 16

Issued at: 12:00 AM PhT (16:00 GMT) Monday, 18 December 2017
Next update: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Monday, 18 December 2017
Current Status and Outlook

Tropical Depression KAI-TAK (URDUJA) has maintained its intensity in the past 6 hours as it moves southwestward at a forward speed of 22 km/hr over the northern part of the Sulu Sea. It is expected to landfall over the eastern coast of Northern Palawan by Monday morning (Dec 18) between 7-8 am. Residents are advised to take precautionary measures for possible flash floods, landslides, or lightning strikes. Its rainbands are currently affecting the Western sections of Western Visayas, Mindoro Province, Romblon, Cuyo Island, and Northern Palawan. 

24-hr Outlook: TD KAI-TAK (URDUJA) is expected to slightly intensify as it moves west-southwestward at a speed of 23 km/hr over the West Philippine Sea. It will traverse over the landmass of Northern Palawan by Monday morning (Dec 18).

The combined effects of the surge of Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) and TD KAI-TAK (URDUJA) – will continue to bring moderate to at times heavy/extreme rains and thunderstorms across Northern, Eastern, and Southern Luzon, Bicol Region, MIMAROPA, and Western sections of Western Visayas.

Where is KAI-TAK (URDUJA)?As of 11:00 PM PhT today, December 17…1500 GMT. The center was located over the northern part of the Sulu Sea (near 11.4N 121.2E), about 133 km east-southeast of Coron, Palawan or 167 km west-northwest of Iloilo City, Iloilo
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 45 kph near the center…Gustiness: 65 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs)Southwest @ 22 km/hr, towards Cuyo Island-Northern Palawan Area.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s):: Along the eastern coast of Northern Palawan by Monday morning (Dec 18) (approx. between 7-8am), with a High Strike Probability of 90-100%.
What Philippine areas will be most affected?Moderate to Extreme Rains (50 to more than 100 mm expected):
>> Northern, Eastern, and Southern Luzon, Bicol Region, MIMAROPA, and Western sections of Western Visayas – Today through Monday evening (Dec 18).

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+:: None.
2-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

MONDAY EVENING: Slightly intensifies even after interacting with the landmass of Northern Palawan, over the West Philippine Sea…about 196 km west of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [8PM Dec 18: 9.9N 117.0E @ 55kph].  Confidence LevelMEDIUM.

TUESDAY EVENING: Slightly weakens as it exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR), over the West Philippine Sea…about 512 km west of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [8PM Dec 19: 9.1N 114.2E @ 45kph].  Confidence LevelHIGH.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 300 mm [Light to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 480 km (Small)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional DistancesTime/Date: 11:00 PM PhT Sun December 17, 2017
Location of Center/Eye:  Near 11.4º N Lat 121.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 211 km WNW of Talisay City, Negros Occidental
Distance 2: 214 km WNW of Victorias City, Negros Occidental
Distance 3: 218 km WNW of Silay  City, Negros Occidental
Distance 4: 225 km WNW of La Carlota  City, Negros Occidental
Distance 5: 353 km S of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: John Christian B. Lequiron for WeatherPhilippines

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Sunday, December 17, 2017

Tropical Depression KAI-TAK (URDUJA) Update No. 15

 

Tropical Depression KAI-TAK (URDUJA) Update No. 15

TROPICAL DEPRESSION KAI-TAK (URDUJA) UPDATE NO. 15

Issued at: 6:15 PM PhT (10:15 GMT) Sunday, 17 December 2017
Next update: 1:00 AM PhT (17:00 GMT) Monday, 18 December 2017
Current Status and Outlook

Tropical Depression KAI-TAK (URDUJA) has slightly weakened in the past 6 hours as it moves westward at a speed of 20 km/hr near the eastern coast of Santa Fe, Romblon. It will landfall over the eastern coast of Northern Aklan tonight (Dec 17) between 7-8 PM. Residents are advised to take precautionary measures for possible flash floods, landslides, or lightning strikes. Its rainbands are currently affecting the Northern sections of Western Visayas, Southern Luzon, and MIMAROPA. 

24-hr Outlook: TD KAI-TAK (URDUJA) is expected to slightly intensify as it moves west-southwestward at a forward speed of 19 km/hr over the West Philippine Sea. It will traverse over the landmass of Northern Aklan tonight (Dec 17) and Northern Palawan by Monday morning (Dec 18).

The combined effects of the surge of Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) and TD KAI-TAK (URDUJA) – will continue to bring moderate to at times heavy/extreme rains and thunderstorms across Northern, Eastern, and Southern Luzon, Bicol Region, MIMAROPA, and Western Visayas.

Where is KAI-TAK (URDUJA)?As of 05:00 PM PhT today, December 17…0900 GMT. The center was located near the eastern coast of Santa Fe, Romblon (near 12.1N 122.2E), about 85 km northwest of Roxas City, Capiz or 150 km west of Masbate City, Masbate
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 45 kph near the center…Gustiness: 65 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs)West @ 20 km/hr, towards Northern Aklan-Cuyo Island-Northern Palawan Area.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s):: Along the eastern coast of Northern Aklan tonight (approx. between 7-8pm), with a High Strike Probability of 90-100%.
What Philippine areas will be most affected?Moderate to Extreme Rains (50 to more than 100 mm expected):
>> Northern, Eastern, and Southern Luzon, Bicol Region, MIMAROPA, and Western Visayas – Today through Monday afternoon (Dec 18).

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+:: None.
3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

MONDAY AFTERNOON: Slightly intensifies even after interacting with the landmass of Northern Aklan and Northern Palawan, over the West Philippine Sea…about 93 km north of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [2PM Dec 18: 10.8N 118.7E @ 55kph].  Confidence Level:  MEDIUM.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Slightly weakens while over the West Philippine Sea, near the southwestern edge of Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)…about 389 km west of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [2PM Dec 19: 9.3N 115.3E @ 45kph].  Confidence Level MEDIUM.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens into a Low Pressure Area (LPA) after exiting the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR), over the West Philippine Sea…about 749 km west of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [2PM Dec 20: 8.6N 112.1E @ 35kph].  Confidence Level HIGH.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 350 mm [Light to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 455 km (Small)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional DistancesTime/Date: 05:00 PM PhT Sun December 17, 2017
Location of Center/Eye:  Near 12.1º N Lat 122.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 168 km NW of Victorias City, Negros Occidental
Distance 2: 178 km NNW of Silay  City, Negros Occidental
Distance 3: 181 km SE of Calapan City, Oriental Mindoro
Distance 4: 184 km SW of Ligao City, Albay
Distance 5: 302 km SSE of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: John Christian B. Lequiron for WeatherPhilippines

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Posted by: "Typhoon2000.com (Michael V. Padua)" <T2Kstormupdates@gmail.com>
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Tropical Depression KAI-TAK (URDUJA) Update No. 14

 

Tropical Depression KAI-TAK (URDUJA) Update No. 14

urduja17-14

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION KAI-TAK (URDUJA) UPDATE NO. 14

Issued at: 1:00 PM PhT (05:00 GMT) Sunday, 17 December 2017
Next update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Sunday, 17 December 2017
Current Status and Outlook

KAI-TAK (URDUJA) is now in the vicinity of Mandaon, Masbate as it weakened into a Tropical Depression (TD).  

24-hr Outlook: TS KAI-TAK (URDUJA) is expected to move west-southwestward at an accelerated forward speed of 22 km/hr, and shall pass over Northwestern Aklan or very close to Boracay late this afternoon. It shall be over Northern Palawan by tomorrow morning (Monday, Dec 18) with decreased wind speeds of 45 km/hr.

The combined effects of the surge of the Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) and TS KAI-TAK (URDUJA) – will continue to bring moderate to at times heavy/extreme rains and thunderstorms across Bicol Region, Southern Quezon, Mindoro, Romblon, Cuyo Islands, Northern Palawan, Marinduque, Northern Visayas, and Eastern Luzon.

Where is KAI-TAK (URDUJA)?As of 11:00 AM PhT today, December 17…2100 GMT. The center was located over Western Masbate, or in the vicinity of Mandaon, Masbate (near 12.3N 123.3E), about 28 km west-southwest of Masbate City, Masbate or 154 km east-northeast of Boracay Is., Aklan.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 55 kph near the center…Gustiness: 75 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs)West @ 22 km/hr, towards Western Aklan-Cuyo-Northern Palawan Area.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s):: Along Western Aklan by late this afternoon (approx. between 4pm-6pm), with a High Strike Probability of 90-100%.
What Philippine areas will be most affected?Moderate to Extreme Rains (50 to more than 100 mm expected):
>> Northern Visayas, Bicol Region, Mindoro, Romblon, Cuyo Islands, Northern Palawan, and Aklan – Today through Monday morning (Dec 18).

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+:: None.
3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

MONDAY MORNING: In the vicinity of Northern Palawan while moving WSW-ward…about 99 km northeast of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [8AM Dec 18: 10.7N 119.3E @ 55kph].  Confidence Level:  MEDIUM.

TUESDAY MORNING: Slightly weakens as it emerges over the West Philippine Sea towards Kalayaan Island Group…about 312 km west-southwest of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [8AM Dec 19: 9.4N 116.0E @ 45kph].  Confidence Level:  HIGH.

WEDNESDAY MORNING: Already outside of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR), just an area of remnant Low Pressure…about 644 km west of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [8AM Dec 20: 9.0N 113.0E @ 35kph].  Confidence Level:  HIGH.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 300 mm [Light to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 780 km (Medium)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional DistancesTime/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Sun December 16, 2017
Location of Center/Eye:  Near 11.9º N Lat 124.5º E Lon
Distance 1: 115 km ESE of Masbate City, Masbate
Distance 2: 087 km NW of Tacloban City, Leyte
Distance 3: 132 km SSE of Sorsogon City, Sorsogon
Distance 4: 195 km ENE of Roxas City, Capiz
Distance 5: 482 km SE of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

urduja17-14-signals

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Posted by: "Typhoon2000.com (Michael V. Padua)" <T2Kstormupdates@gmail.com>
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Tropical Storm KAI-TAK (URDUJA) Update No. 13

 

Tropical Storm KAI-TAK (URDUJA) Update No. 13

urduja17-13

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urduja17-13-loop

TROPICAL STORM KAI-TAK (URDUJA) UPDATE NO. 13

Issued at: 7:45 AM PhT (23:45 GMT) Sunday, 17 December 2017
Next update: 1:00 PM PhT (05:00 GMT) Sunday, 17 December 2017
Current Status and Outlook

Tropical Storm KAI-TAK (URDUJA) has weakened further as its main convection was rip-off by strong upper-level easterly winds hundreds of kilometers to the west (along Sulu Sea-Palawan-Mindoro Area).  The exposed center with its few rainclouds is now over the Sibuyan Sea drifting west-southwestward towards the Southern Tip of Masbate and Panay Island.

24-hr Outlook: TS KAI-TAK (URDUJA) is expected to move west-southwestward at an accelerated forward speed of 19 km/hr, traversting Panay Island today and shall be over the northern part of Sulu Sea by early Monday morning (Dec 18). This storm could be downgraded to a Tropical Depression (TD) if further deterioration of the circulation will be observed.

The combined effects of the surge of the Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) and TS KAI-TAK (URDUJA) – will continue to bring moderate to at times heavy/extreme rains and thunderstorms across Bicol Region, Southern Quezon, Mindoro, Romblon, Cuyo Islands, Northern Palawan, Marinduque, and Eastern Luzon.

Where is KAI-TAK (URDUJA)?As of 5:00 AM PhT today, December 17…2100 GMT. The center was located over the Sibuyan Sea, or in the vicinity of Sto. Niño Island (near 11.9N 124.5E), about 21 km south-southwest of Calbayog City, Samar or 60 km east of Cataingan, Masbate.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 65 kph near the center…Gustiness: 85 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs)West-Southwest @ 07 km/hr, towards Southern Masbate-Panay Area.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s):: Along Northern Iloilo by Sunday morning (approx. between 11am-12nn), with a High Strike Probability of 90-100%.
What Philippine areas will be most affected?Moderate to Extreme Rains (50 to more than 100 mm expected):
>> Central and Western Visayas, Bicol Region, Mindoro, Romblon, Cuyo Islands, Northern Palawan, and Marinduque – Today through Monday morning (Dec 18).

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+:: None.
3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

MONDAY EARLY MORNING: In the vicinity of Cuyo Island while moving WSW…about 85 km south of Amanpulo, Pamalican Is.[2AM Dec 18: 10.6N 120.9E @ 65kph].  Confidence Level:  MEDIUM.

TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: Slightly intensifies as it emerges over the West Philippine Sea after making its landfall over Northern Palawan…about 227 km west-southwest of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [2AM Dec 19: 9.4N 116.8E @ 75kph].  Confidence Level:  LOW.

WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: Continues to intensify as it exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR), over the West Philippine Sea…about 480 km west of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [2AM Dec 20: 9.2N 114.6E @ 85kph].  Confidence Level:  LOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 330 mm [Light to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 600 km (Small)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional DistancesTime/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Sun December 16, 2017
Location of Center/Eye:  Near 11.9º N Lat 124.5º E Lon
Distance 1: 115 km ESE of Masbate City, Masbate
Distance 2: 087 km NW of Tacloban City, Leyte
Distance 3: 132 km SSE of Sorsogon City, Sorsogon
Distance 4: 195 km ENE of Roxas City, Capiz
Distance 5: 482 km SE of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

urduja17-13-signals

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Posted by: "Typhoon2000.com (Michael V. Padua)" <T2Kstormupdates@gmail.com>
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