Thursday, July 27, 2017

Fwd: Severe Tropical Storm NESAT (GORIO) Update Number 004

 


Severe Tropical Storm NESAT (GORIO) Update Number 004

SEVERE TROPICAL STORM NESAT (GORIO) UPDATE NO. 004

Issued at: 12:15 PM PhT (04:15 GMT) Thursday 27 July 2017
Next update: Thursday Evening, 27 July 2017
Current Status and Outlook

TS GORIO has intensified into a severe tropical storm (STS GORIO) in the past 12 hours. It enhances the Southwest Monsoon (HABAGAT) which brings cloudy conditions with moderate to heavy rain showers and thunderstorms over the western sections of Luzon and Metro Manila.  

It is expected to move northwest within the next 24 hours at a speed of 16 km/hr over the Batanes Group of Islands.

*Residents living along the path of this storm must take all necessary precautions against heavy rains which can produce flash floods, landslides and overflowing of some river systems.

Where is NESAT (GORIO)?As of 11:00 AM PhT, July 27…0300 GMT.  The center was located over the northern part of the Central Philippine Sea (near 18.0N 127.5E), about 590 km east of  Ilagan, Isabela or 639 km east-southeast of Basco, Batanes.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 100 kph near the center…Gustiness: 130 kph.

Past Movement (6 hrs)It was moving North-Northwest @ 6 kphtowards the Batanes Group of Islands
Potential Landfall Area(s):: Over Taitung, Taiwan between 9-10am on July 29, with a medium Strike Probability of 60-65%.
What Philippine areas will be most affected?*:: None.

*Where moderate to heavy rains of 30 to 100 millimeters will be expected.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+:: None.
3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

FRIDAY MORNING: Intensifies into a typhoon over the southwestern part of the North Philippine Sea…about 365 km east of Basco, Batanes [8AM July 28: 20.3N 125.5E @ 130kph]Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

SATURDAY MORNING: Move towards the East Taiwan Sea and is expected to landfall over the southern sections of Taiwan…about 191 km north of Itbayat, Batanes [8AM July 29: 22.5N 121.9E @ 155kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

SUNDAY MORNING: Weakens to a severe tropical storm due to its landfall over the southern sections of Taiwan…about 362 km east-northeast of Hongkong [8AM July 30: 23.3N 117.5E @ 110kph].  Confidence LevelMEDIUM.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively…while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 50 to 300 mm [Moderate to Heavy]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 982 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 676 km (Medium)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 55 km from the center.

Additional DistancesTime/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Thu July 27, 2017
Location of Center/Eye: Near 18.0º N Lat 127.5º E Lon
Distance 1: 670 km NNE of Sorsogon, Sorsogon
Distance 2: 674 km NE of Legazpi, Albay
Distance 3: 730 km NNE of Calbayog, Western Samar
Distance 4: 745 km NNE of Borongan , Eastern Samar
Distance 5: 795 km ENE of Metro Manila



Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: John Christian B. Lequiron for WeatherPhilippines


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Severe Tropical Storm NESAT (GORIO) Update Number 005

 

Severe Tropical Storm NESAT (GORIO) Update Number 005

gorio17-05

gorio17-05-zoom

gorio17-05-loop

SEVERE TROPICAL STORM NESAT (GORIO) UPDATE NO. 005

Issued at: 7:00 PM PhT (10:30 GMT) Thursday 27 July 2017
Next update: Friday Early Morning, 28 July 2017
Current Status and Outlook

Severe Tropical Storm NESAT (GORIO) has maintained its strength during the past 6 hours while moving slowly northwestward across the southwestern part of the North Philippine Sea.  

This strong storm is expected to continue moving northwest within the next 24 hours at a speed of 18 km/hr towards the Bashi Channel, and is likely to become a Typhoon by Friday afternoon (Jul 28).

*STS NESAT (GORIO) together with a developing LPA 92W located about 410 km WNW of Laoag City (18.8N 116.7E) – will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) and will bring occasional rains and thunderstorms across the Western Sections of Luzon including MiMaRoPa. Residents are advised to take precautionary measures against heavy rains which can produce flash floods, landslides and overflowing of some river systems.

Where is NESAT (GORIO)?As of 5:00 PM PhT, July 27…0900 GMT.  The center was located over the Southwestern part of the North Philippine Sea (near 18.4N 127.1E), about 522 km east of Santa Ana, Cagayan or 582 km east-southeast of Basco, Batanes.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 100 kph near the center…Gustiness: 130 kph.

Past Movement (6 hrs)It was moving Northwest @ 10 kphtowards the Batanes-Taiwan Area
Potential Landfall Area(s):: Over Taitung, Taiwan between 2-3pm on Saturday (Jul 29), with a medium Strike Probability of 50-60%.
What Philippine areas will be most affected?*:: None.
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+:: None.
3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

FRIDAY MORNING: Intensifies into a typhoon while over the western part of the North Philippine Sea…about 271 km east-northeast of Basco, Batanes [2PM July 28: 20.9N 124.6E @ 130kph]Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

SATURDAY MORNING: Makes landfall over the Southeastern part of Taiwan…about 254 km north-northwest of Itbayat, Batanes [2PM July 29: 23.0N 121.3E @ 140kph].  Confidence Level: LOW.

SUNDAY MORNING: Weakens to a severe tropical storm as it bears down the coast of Southeastern China…about 58 km south-southeast of Xiamen, China [2PM July 30: 24.0N 118.3E @ 100kph].  Confidence LevelLOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively…while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info


> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 450 mm [Moderate to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 982 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 676 km (Medium)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 55 km from the center.

Additional DistancesTime/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Thu July 27, 2017
Location of Center/Eye: Near 18.4º N Lat 127.1º E Lon
Distance 1: 516 km ENE of Palanan, Isabela
Distance 2: 575 km E of Tuguegarao, Cagayan
Distance 3: 580 km E of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 4: 606 km E of Calayan Island, Cagayan
Distance 5: 774 km NE of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

goriopsws17-05


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Tropical Storm NESAT (GORIO) Update Number 003

 


TROPICAL STORM NESAT (GORIO) UPDATE NO. 003

Issued at: 11:45 PM PhT (15:45 GMT) Wednesday 26 July 2017
Next update: Thursday Afternoon, 27 July 2017
Current Status and Outlook

TD GORIO have intensified into a tropical storm (TS GORIO) in the past 12 hours with an international name of "NESAT". Its rainbands still continues to provide cloudy conditions with light to at times moderate rain showers and thunderstorms over Bicol Region.  

It is expected to move north-northwest within the next 24 hours at a slow speed of 9 km/hr over the Balintang Channel.

*Residents living along the path of this storm must take all necessary precautions against heavy rains which can produce flash floods, landslides and overflowing of some river systems.

Where is NESAT (GORIO)?As of 11:00 PM PhT, July 26…1500 GMT.  The center was located over the northern part of the Central Philippine Sea (near 17.3N 127.9E), about 538 km northeast of Bagamanoc, Catanduanes or 580 km northeast of San Andres, Catanduanes.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 85 kph near the center…Gustiness: 100 kph.

Past Movement (6 hrs)It was moving North-Northwest @ 16 kphtowards the Balintang Channel
Potential Landfall Area(s):: Over Manzhou, Taiwan between 6-7pm on July 29, with a high Strike Probability of 80-85%.
What Philippine areas will be most affected?*:: None.

*Where moderate to heavy rains of 30 to 100 millimeters will be expected.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+:: None.
3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

THURSDAY EVENING: Intensifies into a typhoon over the eastern part of the Balintang Channel while maintaining its movement…about 501 km east of Santa Ana, Cagayan [8PM July 27: 18.8N 126.9E @ 120kph]Confidence LevelHIGH.

FRIDAY EVENING: Intensifies while moving towards Batanes Group of Islands…about 312 km east of Basco, Batanes [8PM July 28: 20.6N 125.0E @ 140kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

SATURDAY EVENING: Landfall as a typhoon over the southern sections of Taiwan…about 225 km northwest of Itbayat, Batanes [8PM July 29: 22.3N 120.4E @ 130kph].  Confidence LevelMEDIUM.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively…while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 50 to 200 mm [Moderate to Heavy]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 989 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 586 km (Small)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional DistancesTime/Date: 11:00 PM PhT Wed July 26, 2017
Location of Center/Eye: Near 17.3º N Lat 127.9º E Lon
Distance 1: 610 km E of Divilacan, Isabela
Distance 2: 620 km NE of Bacacay, Albay
Distance 3: 625 km NE of Tigaon, Camarines Sur
Distance 4: 633 km E of Penablanca, Cagayan
Distance 5: 794 km ENE of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: John Christian B. Lequiron for WeatherPhilippines

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Posted by: "Typhoon2000.com (Michael V. Padua)" <T2Kstormupdates@gmail.com>
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Wednesday, July 26, 2017

Tropical Depression 11W (GORIO) Update Number 002

 


Tropical Depression 11W (GORIO) Update Number 002

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W (GORIO) UPDATE NO. 002

Issued at: 12:15 PM PhT (04:15 GMT) Wednesday 26 July 2017
Next update: Thursday Early Morning, 27 July 2017
Current Status and Outlook

TD GORIO have maintained its intensity for the past 12 hours. Its rainbands are still providing mostly cloudy to cloudy conditions with light to at times moderate rain showers and thunderstorms over Bicol Region.  

It is expected to move north within the next 24 hours at a speed of 14 km/hr over the northern part of the Central Philippine Sea.

*Residents living along the path of this depression must take all necessary precautions against heavy rains which can produce flash floods, landslides and overflowing of some river systems.

Where is 11W (GORIO)?As of 11:00 AM PhT, July 26…0300 GMT.  The center was located over the western part of the Central Philippine Sea (near 15.8N 128.1E), about 463 km east-northeast of Panganiban, Catanduanes or 488 km northeast of Laoang, Northern Samar.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 55 kph near the center…Gustiness: 75 kph.

Past Movement (6 hrs)It was moving North-Northwest @ 19 kphtowards the northern part of the Central Philippine Sea
Potential Landfall Area(s):: None.
What Philippine areas will be most affected?*:: None.

*Where moderate to heavy rains of 30 to 100 millimeters will be expected.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+:: None.
3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

THURSDAY MORNING: Intensifies into a Tropical Storm over the northern part of the Central Philippine Sea while maintaining its movement…about 583 km east-northeast of Palanan, Isabela [8AM July 27: 18.4N 127.7E @ 75kph]Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

FRIDAY MORNING: Intensifies into a Severe Tropical Storm while changing its movement from north to north-northwest…about 490 km east of Basco, Batanes [8AM July 28: 20.2N 126.7E @ 110kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

SATURDAY MORNING: Intensifies into a Typhoon over the western part of Northern Philippine Sea…about 256 km east-northeast of Basco, Batanes [8AM July 29: 21.0N 124.4E @ 145kph].  Confidence LevelMEDIUM.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively…while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 50 to 150 mm [Moderate to Heavy]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 602 km (Small)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional DistancesTime/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Wed July 26, 2017
Location of Center/Eye: Near 15.8º N Lat 128.1º E Lon
Distance 1: 504 km NE of Jipadpad, Eastern Samar 
Distance 2: 525 km NE of Silvino Lobos, Northern Samar
Distance 3: 535 km NE of San Jose, Northern Samar
Distance 4: 544 km NE of Gandara, Samar
Distance 5: 775 km E of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: John Christian B. Lequiron for WeatherPhilippines

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION (GORIO) UPDATE NO. 001

 

Tropical Depression (GORIO) Update Number 001

TROPICAL DEPRESSION (GORIO) UPDATE NO. 001

Issued at: 12:30 AM PhT (16:30 GMT) Wednesday 26 July 2017
Next update: Wednesday Afternoon, 26 July 2017
Current Status and Outlook

The strong low pressure area east of Legazpi City, Albay has developed into Tropical Depression (TD), bearing the local name: "GORIO". Its rainbands are expected to affect the Eastern Visayas and Bicol Region by bringing mostly cloudy to cloudy conditions with light rain showers and thunderstorms. 

This depression is expected to move north-northeast within the next 24 hours at a speed of 18 km/hr over the central part of the Central Philippine Sea.

*Residents living along the path of this depression must take all necessary precautions against heavy rains which can produce flash floods, landslides and overflowing of some river systems.

Where is (GORIO)?As of 11:00 PM PhT, July 25…1500 GMT.  The center was located over the western part of the Central Philippine Sea (near 13.8N 128.3E), about 353 km east-northeast of San Policarpio, Eastern Samar or 379 km east-northeast of Laoang, Northern Samar.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 55 kph near the center…Gustiness: 65 kph.

Past Movement (6 hrs)It was moving West-Northwest @ 12 kphtowards the central part of the Central Philippine Sea
Potential Landfall Area(s):: None.
What Philippine areas will be most affected?*:: None.

*Where moderate to heavy rains of 30 to 100 millimeters will be expected.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+:: None.
3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

WEDNESDAY EVENING: Expected to be at the central part of the Central Philippine Sea while maintaining its current wind speed and gust…about 700 km east-northeast of Bagamanoc, Catanduanes [8PM July 26: 16.5N 130.2E @ 55kph]Confidence Level:  HIGH.

THURSDAY EVENING: Continues to maintain its current intensity but changes its movement from east-northeast to north-northwest…about 728 km east of Santa Ana, Cagayan [8PM July 27: 18.6N 129.0E @ 55kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

FRIDAY EVENING: Intensifies into a Typhoon while maintaining its movement of north-northwest…about 347 km east-northeast of Basco, Batanes [8PM July 28: 21.3N 125.2E @ 150kph].  Confidence LevelMEDIUM.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively…while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 50 to 120 mm [Moderate to Heavy]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 375 km (Very Small/Midget)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional DistancesTime/Date: 11:00 PM PhT Tue July 25, 2017
Location of Center/Eye: Near 13.8º N Lat 128.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 400 km NE of Llorente, Eastern Samar 
Distance 2: 412 km NE of General MacArthur, Eastern Samar
Distance 3: 425 km E of Baras, Catanduanes
Distance 4: 431 km NE of Basey, Samar
Distance 5: 790 km E of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: John Christian B. Lequiron for WeatherPhilippines


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Posted by: "Typhoon2000.com (Michael V. Padua)" <T2Kstormupdates@gmail.com>
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