Friday, October 20, 2017

Typhoon LAN (PAOLO) Update No. 09

 

Typhoon LAN (PAOLO) Update No. 09

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TYPHOON LAN (PAOLO) UPDATE NO. 09

Issued at: 6:15 PM PhT (10:15 GMT) Friday 20 October 2017
Next update: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Saturday, 21 October 2017
Current Status and Outlook

Typhoon LAN (PAOLO) slowly intensfying as it continues to move on a general northerly track across the North Philippine Sea…expected to exit the northern border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by tomorrow evening (Oct 21).

24-hr Outlook: TY LAN (PAOLO) is forecast to intensify and move north-northeastward at a speed of 19 kph, across the northernmost part of the North Philippine Sea and over the sea south of Japan.

*Based on its current projected path, this typhoon will not directly affect any part of the country.

Meanwhile, the combined effects of the Monsoon Trough and Ex-Tropical Depression 26W, along side with the Southwesterly Windflow as enhanced by TY LAN (PAOLO) – will continue to bring light to moderate to at times extreme rain showers and thunderstorms over MiMaRoPa, Western Visayas, Zamboanga Peninsula, and Western Bicol.

Where is LAN (PAOLO)?As of 5:00 PM PhT today, October 20…0900 GMT.  The center was located over the central part of the North Philippine Sea (near 19.9N 130.1E), about 847 km east of Basco, Batanes or 905 km east-northeast of Aparri, Cagayan.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 155 kph near the center…Gustiness: 190 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs)It was moving North @ 13 kph, towards the North Philippine Sea.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s):: None.
What Philippine areas will be most affected?Moderate to Heavy Rains (50 to 100 mm expected):
>> None.

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+:: None.
1-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Intensifies into a Category 4 Typhoon as it moves NNE across the northern part of the North Philippine Sea…about 986 km east of Taipei, Taiwan [2PM Oct 21: 23.3N 131.1E @ 200kph].  Confidence Level: HIGH.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 350 mm [Light to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 956 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 1,350 km (Large)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 180 km from center.

Additional DistancesTime/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Fri October 20, 2017
Location of Center/Eye: Near 19.9º N Lat 130.1º E Lon
Distance 1: 867 km E of Itbayat, Batanes
Distance 2: 907 km ENE of Ilagan City, Isabela
Distance 3: 937 km ENE of Cauayan City, Isabela
Distance 4: 969 km ENE of Santiago City, Isabela
Distance 5: 1128 km ENE of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

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Typhoon LAN (PAOLO) Update No. 08

 

Typhoon LAN (PAOLO) Update No. 08

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TYPHOON LAN (PAOLO) UPDATE NO. 08

Issued at: 6:30 AM PhT (22:30 GMT) Friday 20 October 2017
Next update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Friday, 20 October 2017
Current Status and Outlook

Typhoon LAN (PAOLO) moving northward across the southern part of the North Philippine Sea, with no change in strength…likely to moved out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) this weekend.   

24-hr Outlook: TY LAN (PAOLO) is expected to intensify slightly as it moves northward towards the northern part of the North Philippine Sea at a forward speed of 16 kph.

*Based on its current projected path, this typhoon will not directly affect any part of the country.

Meanwhile, the combined effects of the Monsoon Trough and Ex-Tropical Depression 26W, along side with the Southwesterly Windflow as enhanced by TY LAN (PAOLO) – will continue to bring moderate to at times extreme rain showers and thunderstorms over MiMaRoPa, Visayas, Zamboanga Peninsula, Bicol Region and Quezon.

Where is LAN (PAOLO)?As of 5:00 AM PhT today, October 20…2100 GMT.  The center was located over the southern part of the North Philippine Sea (near 18.4N 130.0E), about 820 km east-northeast of Palanan, Isabela or 882 km east of Aparri, Cagayan.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 130 kph near the center…Gustiness: 155 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs)It was moving North @ 17 kph, towards the North Philippine Sea.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s):: None.
What Philippine areas will be most affected?Moderate to Heavy Rains (50 to 100 mm expected):
>> None.

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+:: None.
2-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Intensifies into a Category 2 Typhoon as it moves North to NNE across the central and northern parts of the North Philippine Sea…about 847 km east of Basco, Batanes [2AM Oct 21: 21.4N 130.1E @ 165kph].  Confidence Level: HIGH.

SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Exits the northern boundary of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) as it weakens slightly after reaching Category 3 strength, heads for Japan…about 1,004 km east of Taipei, Taiwan [2AM Oct 22: 26.2N 131.5E @ 170kph].  Confidence LevelHIGH.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 400 mm [Light to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 967 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 1,450 km (Large)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 360 km from center.

Additional DistancesTime/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Fri October 20, 2017
Location of Center/Eye: Near 18.4º N Lat 130.0º E Lon
Distance 1: 858 km E of Ilagan City, Isabela
Distance 2: 878 km NE of Sorsogon City, Sorsogon
Distance 3: 886 km ENE of Cauayan City, Isabela
Distance 4: 895 km ESE of Itbayat, Batanes
Distance 5: 1044 km ENE of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

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Posted by: "Typhoon2000.com (Michael V. Padua)" <T2Kstormupdates@gmail.com>
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Thursday, October 19, 2017

Typhoon LAN (PAOLO) Update No. 07

 

Typhoon LAN (PAOLO) Update No. 07


TYPHOON LAN (PAOLO) UPDATE NO. 07

Issued at: 7:40 PM PhT (11:40 GMT) Thursday 19 October 2017
Next update: 8:00 AM PhT (00:00 GMT) Friday, 20 October 2017
Current Status and Outlook

Typhoon LAN (PAOLO) has slightly intensified as it moved north-northwestward over the northern part of the Central Philippine Sea during the past 6 hours. Its southwestern rainbands continues to bring "on-and-off" rains and thunderstorms over the Bicol Region and Samar Provinces.  

TY LAN (PAOLO) is expected to intensify as it moves northward in the next 24 hours over the southern part of the North Philippine Sea at a forward speed of 15 kph.

Meanwhile, the combined effects of Typhoon LAN (PAOLO), Monsoon Trough, Southwesterly Windflow, and Tropical Depression 26W will continue to bring moderate to at times extreme rain showers and thunderstorms over Palawan, Western Visayas, and Eastern sections of Bicol Region.

*Based on its current projected path, this typhoon will not directly affect any part of the country.

Where is LAN (PAOLO)?As of 5:00 PM PhT today, October 19…0900 GMT.  The center was located over the northern part of the Central Philippine Sea (near 16.8N 130.0E), about 759 km northeast of Borongan  City, Eastern Samar or 784 km northeast of Catbalogan City, Samar.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 130 kph near the center…Gustiness: 155 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs)It was moving North-Northwest @ 12 kph, towards the North Philippine Sea.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s):: None.
What Philippine areas will be most affected?Moderate to Heavy Rains (50 to 100 mm expected):
>> None.

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+:: None.
3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Becomes a Category 3 Typhoon as it moves towards the southern part of the North Philippine Sea…about 792 km east of Santa Ana, Cagayan [2PM Oct 20: 19.6N 129.6E @ 170kph].  Confidence Level: HIGH.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Continues to gain strength as it moves towards the northern part of the North Philippine Sea…about 882 km east-northeast of Basco, Batanes [2PM Oct 21: 23.0N 130.1E @ 205kph].  Confidence LevelMEDIUM.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Slightly weakens after it exited the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR), already threatening the southern part of Japan..about 1069 km east-southeast of Shanghai , China [2PM Oct 22: 28.0N 131.9E @ 190kph].  Confidence Level: LOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 550 mm [Light to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 967 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 920 km (Medium)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 195 km from center.

Additional DistancesTime/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Thu October 19, 2017
Location of Center/Eye: Near 16.8º N Lat 130.0º E Lon
Distance 1: 785 km NE of Calbayog City, Samar
Distance 2: 790 km NE of Guiuan, Eastern Samar
Distance 3: 807 km ENE of Ligao City, Albay
Distance 4: 811 km ENE of Naga City, Camarines Sur
Distance 5: 988 km ENE of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: John Christian B. Lequiron for WeatherPhilippines

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Posted by: "Typhoon2000.com (Michael V. Padua)" <T2Kstormupdates@gmail.com>
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Tropical Depression 26W Final Update

 

Tropical Depression 26W Final Update



TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W UPDATE NO. 03 [FINAL]

Issued at: 6:30 PM PhT (10:30 GMT) Thursday 19 October 2017
Current Status and Outlook

Tropical Depression (TD) 26W has maintained its intensity as it moves northeastward over the West Philippine Sea in the past 6 hours. Its thick and broad rainbands are currently affecting Palawan. 

TD 26W is expected to weaken into a Low Pressure Area (LPA) as it accelerates east-northeastward, passing and making landfall over Northern Palawan later tonight (Oct 19) at a forward speed of 29 kph. 

*Residents along the path of this tropical cyclone should take precautionary measures against flash floods, overflowing rivers and landslides.

*This is the Final Update on this Tropical Cyclone.

Meanwhile, the combined effects of Typhoon LAN (PAOLO), Monsoon Trough, Southwesterly Windflow, and Tropical Depression 26W will continue to bring moderate to at times extreme rain showers and thunderstorms over Palawan, Western Visayas, and Eastern sections of Bicol Region.

Where is 26W?As of 5:00 PM PhT today, October 19…0900 GMT.  The center was located over the southern part of the West Philippine Sea (near 11.2N 118.2E), about 151 km north-northwest of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan or 403 km southwest of Calapan City, Oriental Mindoro.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 45 kph near the center…Gustiness: 65 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs)It was moving Northeast @ 18 kph, towards Northern Palawan-Cuyo Area.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s):: Along the Northern Palawan at approx. 9-10pm tonight, with a Medium Strike Prbobability of 50-65%.
What Philippine areas will be most affected?Moderate to Heavy Rains (50 to 100 mm expected):
>> Most parts of Palawan and Sulu Archipelago – Today through Friday afternoon (Oct 20).

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+:: None.
1-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens into a Low Pressure Area (LPA) after it passes over Northern Palawan, Mindoro, and Romblon…about 14 km south of Iriga City, Camarines Sur [2PM Oct 20: 13.3N 123.4E @ 30kph].  Confidence Level: LOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 300 mm [Light to Heavy]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 305 km (Very Small/Midget)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional DistancesTime/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Thu October 19, 2017
Location of Center/Eye: Near 11.2º N Lat 118.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 441 km SW of Tagaytay City, Cavite
Distance 2: 448 km SW of Trece Martires City, Cavite
Distance 3: 459 km SW of Calamba City, Laguna
Distance 4: 463 km SSW of Olongapo  City, Zambales
Distance 5: 487 km SW of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: John Christian B. Lequiron for WeatherPhilippines

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Posted by: "Typhoon2000.com (Michael V. Padua)" <T2Kstormupdates@gmail.com>
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Tropical Depression 26W Update No. 02

 

Tropical Depression 26W Update No. 02

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W UPDATE NO. 02

Issued at: 12:30 PM PhT (04:30 GMT) Thursday 19 October 2017
Next update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Thursday, 19 October 2017
Current Status and Outlook

Tropical Depression (TD) 26W slowly consolidating over the West Philippine Sea as it moves north-northeast and maintaining its wind intensity during the past 6 hours. ..remains a threat to Palawan and Northwestern Visayas. 

TD 26W is expected to intensify slightly and accelerate east-northeastward, passing and making landfall over Northern Palawan later tonight at a speed of 25 kph. By Friday morning (Oct 20), the depression could become a minimal Tropical Storm (TS) and shall be in the vicinity of Boracay Island.

*Residents along the path of this tropical cyclone should take precautionary measures against flash floods, overflowing rivers and landslides.

Meanwhile, the whole of the Visayas and Western Mindanao will continue to have occasional rains and thunderstorms due to the Westerly and Southwesterly Surface Windflow being enhanced by Typhoon LAN (PAOLO).

Where is 26W?As of 11:00 AM PhT today, October 19…0300 GMT.  The center was located over the southern part of the West Philippine Sea (near 10.5N 117.5E), about 153 km west-northwest of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan or 511 km southwest of Calapan City, Oriental Mindoro.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 45 kph near the center…Gustiness: 65 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs)It was moving North-Northeast @ 11 kph, towards Northern Palawan-Cuyo Area.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s):: Along the Northern Palawan at approx. 8-10pm tonight, with a Medium Strike Prbobability of 50-65%.
What Philippine areas will be most affected?Moderate to Heavy Rains (50 to 100 mm expected):
>> Most parts of Palawan and Sulu Archipelago – Today through Friday morning (Oct 20).

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+:: None.
2-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

FRIDAY MORNING: Intensifies into a minimal Tropical Storm (TS) as it passes along Boracay and the northern coast of Antique, accelerating east-northeastward across the Jintotolo Channel…about 86 km northwest of Roxas City, Capiz [8AM Oct 20: 12.0N 122.1E @ 65kph].  Confidence Level: LOW.

SATURDAY MORNING: Weakens into a Low Pressure Area (LPA) as it emerges over western part of the Central Philippine Sea, after traversing Masbate and Sorsogon…about 473 km east-northeast of Sorsogon City, Sorsogon [8AM Oct 21: 15.3N 127.7E @ 35kph].  Confidence LevelLOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 200 mm [Light to Heavy]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 455 km (Small)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional DistancesTime/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Thu October 19, 2017
Location of Center/Eye: Near 10.5º N Lat 117.5º E Lon
Distance 1: 550 km SW of Tagaytay City, Cavite
Distance 2: 553 km W of Sipalay City, Negros Occidental
Distance 3: 557 km SW of Trece Martires City, Cavite
Distance 4: 567 km W of Paasi City, Iloilo
Distance 5: 595 km SW of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

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Posted by: "Typhoon2000.com (Michael V. Padua)" <T2Kstormupdates@gmail.com>
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