Wednesday, March 28, 2018

Tropical Storm JELAWAT (CALOY) Final StormWatch

 

Tropical Storm JELAWAT (CALOY) Final StormWatch

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TROPICAL STORM JELAWAT (CALOY) STORMWATCH NO. 04 [FINAL]

Issued at: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Wednesday 28 March 2018
Current Status and OutlookJELAWAT (CALOY) has intensified into a Tropical Storm (TS) as it changed its course towards the north and moved out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) earlier than expected. This cyclone is no longer a threat to the country.

Due to the sudden change of its track, this will be the final stormwatch on this tropical cyclone. 

Where is JELAWAT (CALOY)?As of 5:00 PM PhT today, March 28…0900 GMT. The center was located along the Northwest Pacific Ocean (near 14..2N 135.5E), about 1,008 km west of Hagatna, Guam (CNMI) or 1,222 km east of Virac, Catanduanes
How strong is it?Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 85 kph near the center…Gustiness: 100 kph
Past Movement (06 hrs)North @ 35 km/hr  towards the Northwest Pacific Ocean.
Forecast Highlights
  • The majority of the Global Typhoon Forecast Models (GTFM) shows Jelawat (Caloy) becoming a Typhoon within the next 24 to 48 hours and shall recurve NNE to NE across the open seas of the Northwest Pacific Ocean through 72 hours.
  • Unless a possible threat to the Philippine Islands recur, this will be the final StormWatch on TS Jelawat (Caloy).

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines


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Posted by: "Typhoon2000.com (Michael V. Padua)" <T2Kstormupdates@gmail.com>
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Tuesday, March 27, 2018

Tropical Depression JELAWAT (CALOY) StormWatch No. 03

 

Tropical Depression JELAWAT (CALOY) StormWatch No. 03

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION JELAWAT (CALOY) STORMWATCH NO. 03

Issued at: 6:30 PM PhT (10:30 GMT) Tuesday 27 March 2018
Next update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT), Wednesday 28 March 2018
Current Status and OutlookTropical Depression JELAWAT (CALOY) has remained disorganized as it slowed down during the past 24 hours, lingering just along the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).  This cyclone will not make landfall to any part of the Philippines and is therefore forecast to recurve away from the Philippine Sea on Friday (Mar 30).
Where is JELAWAT (CALOY)?As of 5:00 PM PhT today, March 27…0900 GMT. The weak center was located along the southeastern part of the Central Philippine Sea or over the PAR line (near 10.1N 135.0E), about 310 km north of Koror, Republic of Palau or 1,041 km east of Surigao City, Surigao Del Norte
How strong is it?Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 55 kph near the center…Gustiness: 75 kph
Past Movement (06 hrs)North-Northeast @ 10 km/hr  towards Eastern Part of the Central Philippine Sea.
Forecast Highlights
  • The Global Typhoon Forecast Models (GTFM) still predict this system to become a weak Tropical Storm (TS) and move northward near the PAR line within the next 24 to 48 hours and shall eventually recurve towards the north-northeast thereafter. The forecast confidence is at High.
  • The Day 03 Forecast shows Jelawat (Caloy) exiting PAR in the morning of Good Friday (Mar 30) with a medium forecast confidence.
  • Based on the current forecast, TD Jelawat (Caloy) will not make landfall and won't have any direct impact and effect over the Philippine Islands. The system will only pass-by the far-reaching waters of the Philippine Sea.
  • Meanwhile, the combination of the storm's westernmost trough and the enhanced Northeasterlies might bring isolated to scattered rain showers and thunderstorms across the eastern coastal areas of Eastern Visayas and Bicol Region within the next couple of days.
  • This 24-hour StormWatch Update might be replaced with a 12-hrly Tropical Cyclone Updates if ever Jelawat (Caloy) changes its course.

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines


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Posted by: "Typhoon2000.com (Michael V. Padua)" <T2Kstormupdates@gmail.com>
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Monday, March 26, 2018

Tropical Depression JELAWAT (CALOY) StormWatch No. 02

 

Tropical Depression JELAWAT (CALOY) StormWatch No. 02

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION JELAWAT (CALOY) STORMWATCH NO. 02

Issued at: 6:45 PM PhT (10:45 GMT) Monday 26 March 2018
Next update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT), Tuesday 27 March 2018
Current Status and OutlookTropical Depression JELAWAT (CALOY) has maintained its strength and direction over the past 24 hours and is likely to enter the southeastern border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) late tonight or early Tuesday morning. This cyclone remains a non-threat to the country, but its western trough might bring rain showers across the coastal areas of Eastern Visayas and Eastern Bicol.
Where is JELAWAT (CALOY)?As of 5:00 PM PhT today, March 26…0900 GMT. The weak center was located near the northeastern most part of the South Philippine Sea (near 8.4N 136.1E), about 213 km northeast of Koror, Republic of Palau or 1,081 km east of Bislig City, Surigao Del Sur
How strong is it?Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 55 kph near the center…Gustiness: 75 kph
Past Movement (06 hrs)West-Northwest @ 23 km/hr  towards Eastern Parts of the South and Central Philippine Sea.
Forecast Highlights
  • The Global Typhoon Forecast Models (GTFM) continues to predict this system to become a Tropical Storm and enter PAR within the next 06 to 12 hours and shall turn generally northwestward to northward across the eastern parts of the South and Central Philippine Sea. The forecast confidence is currently at Medium.
  • The Day 03 Forecast shows Jelawat (Caloy) becoming a Severe Tropical Storm (STS) as it recurves to the north-northeast and northeast away from the Philippine Sea and shall exit PAR in the evening of Maundy Thursday (Mar 29) with a medium forecast confidence.
  • Based on the current forecast, TD Jelawat (Caloy) will still have no direct impact and effect over the Philippine Islands. The system will only pass-by the far-reaching waters of the Philippine Sea.
  • However, the storm's western trough might bring scattered to occasional rain showers and thunderstorms across the coastal areas of Eastern Visayas and Eastern Bicol Region within the next couple of days.
  • This 24-hour StormWatch Update might be replaced with a 12-hrly Tropical Cyclone Updates if ever Jelawat (Caloy) changes its course.

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines


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Posted by: "Typhoon2000.com (Michael V. Padua)" <T2Kstormupdates@gmail.com>
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Tropical Depression JELAWAT StormWatch No. 01

 

Tropical Depression JELAWAT StormWatch No. 01

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION JELAWAT STORMWATCH NO. 01

Issued at: 6:45 PM PhT (10:45 GMT) Sunday 25 March 2018
Next update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT), Monday 26 March 2018
Current Status and OutlookTropical Depression JELAWAT, a newly-formed tropical cyclone over Western Micronesia…expected to strengthen into a Tropical Storm (TS) and enter the southeastern border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by tomorrow afternoon (Monday), with the local name "CALOY".  However, this depression is too far to affect any part of the country.
Where is JELAWAT?As of 5:00 PM PhT today, March 25…0900 GMT. The developing center was located over the western part of Micronesia (near 6.6N 139.5E), about 560 km east of Koror, Republic of Palau or 1,465 km east of Mati City, Davao Oriental
How strong is it?Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 55 kph near the center…Gustiness: 75 kph
Past Movement (06 hrs)West-Northwest @ 19 km/hr  towards Palau-Philippine Sea Area.
Forecast Highlights
  • The Global Typhoon Forecast Models (GTFM) are predicting this system to become a Tropical Storm and enter PAR within the next 12 to 24 hours and shall turn generally northwestward towards the eastern part of the South and Central Philippine Sea. The forecast confidence is currently at Medium.
  • The Day 03 to 04 Forecast shows JELAWAT recurving to the north-northeast to northeast away from the Philippine Sea and shall exit the PAR on Maundy Thursday (Mar 29) with amedium forecast confidence.
  • Based on the current forecast, TD JELAWAT will have no direct impact and effect over the Philippine Islands. The system will only pass-by the far-reaching waters of the Philippine Sea.
  • This 24-hour StormWatch Update might be replaced with a 12-hrly Tropical Cyclone Updates if ever JELAWAT changes its course.

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines


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Posted by: "Typhoon2000.com (Michael V. Padua)" <T2Kstormupdates@gmail.com>
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Thursday, February 15, 2018

Tropical Disturbance (LPA) SANBA [BASYANG] Final Update

 

Tropical Disturbance (LPA) SANBA [BASYANG] Final Update

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (LPA) SANBA {BASYANG} UPDATE NO. 19 [FINAL]

Issued at: 6:15 PM PhT (10:15 GMT) Thursday, 15 February 2018
Current Status and Outlook

Tropical Depression SANBA (BASYANG) has weakened into a Tropical Disturbance (LPA) as it moves north-northwestward over the western part of the Sulu Sea or near the eastern coast of Southern Palawan. Its rainbands continues to affect Central and Southern Palawan and Kalayaan Island Group.

24-hr Outlook: This system will weaken further as it moves west-northwestward towards Southern Palawan at a forward speed of 18 km/hr. It is expected to dissipate as it moves across the West Philippine Sea. It will landfall over the eastern coast of Southern Palawan tonight (Feb 15) between 7-8 pm.

*This is the final update on this tropical cyclone.

Tropical Disturbance (LPA) SANBA [BASYANG] and its Trough will bring scattered moderate to at times heavy scattered rain showers and thunderstorms across Palawan including the Kalayaan Island Group.

Where is the LPA (Ex-SANBA)?As of 05:00 PM PhT today, February 15…0900 GMT. The exposed center was located over the western part of the Sulu Sea (near 8.9N 118.9E), about 119 km south of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan or 405 km west-southwest of Sipalay City, Negros Occidental.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 35 kph near the center…Gustiness: 55 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs)North-Northwest @ 21 kph, towards Southern Palawan.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s):: Along the eastern coast of Southern Palawan tonight (Feb 15) between 7-8 pm, with a High Strike Probability of 90-100%.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected?Moderate to Heavy Rains (30 to 50 mm expected):
>> Central and Southern Palawan and Kalayaan Island Group – Today through Friday morning (Feb 16). 


Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+:: None.
1-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens slightly after crossing Southern Palawan, expected to dissipate as it moves over the West Philippine Sea…about 122 km southwest of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [2AM Feb 16: 9.3N 117.9E @ 30kph].  Confidence Level: LOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 150 mm [Light to Heavy]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 575 km (Small)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional DistancesTime/Date: 05:00 PM PhT Thu February 15, 2018
Location of Center/Eye: Near 8.9º N Lat 118.9º E Lon
Distance 1: 438 km W of Bayawan City, Negros Oriental
Distance 2: 449 km WSW of Iloilo City, Iloilo
Distance 3: 455 km WSW of Himamaylan City, Negros Occidental
Distance 4: 480 km WSW of Bago City, Negros Occidental
Distance 5: 673 km SSW of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: John Christian B. Lequiron for WeatherPhilippines


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Posted by: "Typhoon2000.com (Michael V. Padua)" <T2Kstormupdates@gmail.com>
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Tropical Depression SANBA (BASYANG) Update No. 18

 

Tropical Depression SANBA (BASYANG) Update No. 18

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SANBA (BASYANG) UPDATE NO. 18

Issued at: 12:30 PM PhT (04:30 GMT) Thursday, 15 February 2018
Next update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Thursday, 15 February 2018
Current Status and Outlook

Tropical Depression SANBA (BASYANG) has been relocated north of its previous position and has started to track westward slowly. Its rainbands continues to affect Central and Southern Palawan.

24-hr Outlook: TD SANBA (BASYANG) is expected to maintain its intensity and shall move west to west-northwestward at a forward speed of 17 km/hr.  The center is forecast to cross Southern Palawan around midnight Friday (Feb 16) and shall be over the West Philippine Sea by Friday morning. 

TD SANBA (BASYANG) and its Trough will bring scattered moderate to at times heavy scattered rain showers and thunderstorms across Palawan including the Kalayaan Island Group.

Where is SANBA (BASYANG)?As of 11:00 AM PhT today, February 15…0300 GMT. The center was located over the southern part of the Sulu Sea (near 7.8N 119.2E), about 245 km south of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan or 420 km west-southwest of Sipalay City, Negros Occidental.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 45 kph near the center…Gustiness: 65 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs)Quasi-Stationary, towards Southern Palawan.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s):: Along Bataraza, Southern Palawan around midnight tonight between 12-1 am, with a High Strike Probability of 85-95%.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected?Moderate to Heavy Rains (30 to 50 mm expected):
>> Central and Southern Palawan and Kalayaan Island Group – Today through Friday morning (Feb 16). 


Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+:: None.
2-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

FRIDAY MORNING: Maintains its intensity as it emerges over the West Philippine Sea, near the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)…about 322 km west-southwest of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [8AM Feb 16: 8.8N 116.1E @ 45kph].  Confidence LevelLOW.

SATURDAY MORNING: Already outside of PAR while passing along the Southern Spratly Islands…about 689 km west of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [8AM Feb 17: 8.9N 112.6E @ 45kph].  Confidence LevelLOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 220 mm [Light to Heavy]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 545 km (Small)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional DistancesTime/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Thu February 15, 2018
Location of Center/Eye: Near 7.8º N Lat 119.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 442 km WSW of Bayawan City, Negros Oriental
Distance 2: 462 km W of Dipolog  City, Zamboanga Del Norte
Distance 3: 466 km W of Pagadian City, Zamboanga Del Sur
Distance 4: 475 km WSW of Bais City, Negros Oriental
Distance 5: 780 km SSW of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines


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Posted by: "Typhoon2000.com (Michael V. Padua)" <T2Kstormupdates@gmail.com>
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