Friday, June 15, 2012

Typhoon GUCHOL [BUTCHOY] - Update #014


for Friday, 15 June 2012 [6:29 PM PhT]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thursday June 14 2012):

Now issuing 6-hrly web, email, SMS (except SMART/TNT - due to technical adjustments) & iTyphoon app updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on GUCHOL (BUTCHOY).


+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 165 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 125 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 105 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 120 km/hr

+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 105 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks


6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Fri 15 June 2012
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #018/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2012)
The intensifying Typhoon GUCHOL (BUTCHOY) has begun its poleward track as anticipated...drifting slowly NNW during the past 6 hours.

GUCHOL (BUTCHOY) is forecast to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (aka. Habagat) across Mindanao today and across the whole Philippine Islands on Saturday through Monday. Breezy to windy conditions & cloudy skies w/ occasional to widespread rains, thunderstorms & squalls will be expected. The seas along the coastal areas along the West Philippine and Visayan Sea will become moderate to rough & dangerous.

Residents and visitors along the East Coast of the Philippines should closely monitor the progress of GUCHOL (BUTCHOY).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.


Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Fri June 15 2012
Location of Eye: 11.1º N Lat 131.1º E Lon
Distance 1: 624 km ESE of Borongan City
Distance 2: 629 km ENE of Surigao City
Distance 3: 665 km East of Tacloban City
Distance 4: 724 km ESE of Catarman, N.Samar
Distance 5: 799 km SE of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 6: 800 km ESE of Sorsogon City
Distance 7: 835 km SE of Legazpi City
Distance 8: 847 km SE of Caramoan, CamSur
Distance 9: 875 km ESE of Iriga City
Distance 10: 902 km ESE of Metro Naga/CWC
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 165 kph (90 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 205 kph (110 kts)
Present Movement: NNW @ 11 kph (06 kts)
Towards: Philippine Sea
NOAA 24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 330 mm (High)
Minimum Central Pressure: 956 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 2
Size (in Diameter): 520 km (280 nm) [Average]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 30 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 6-8 ft [1.8-2.6 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 PM PhT Fri June 15


GUCHOL (BUTCHOY) is expected to continue moving northwestward w/in the next 12 to 24 hours and will turn NNW to Northward between 36 to 48 hours with more acceleration. By 72 hours, GUCHOL will start recurving towards the NNE. On the forecast track, the core of GUCHOL will just move across the Philippine Sea, passing more or less 500 km to the east of the Philippines through Monday - without hitting any land areas. It will be approaching Okinawa Monday evening.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to near 165 km/hr (85 knots) with higher gusts. GUCHOL will continue gaining strength and will become a Major Typhoon (Category 3) on Saturday.

Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 55 kilometers (30 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 160 kilometers (85 nautical miles. GUCHOL is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 520 kilometers (280 nautical miles).

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Starts to accelerate north-northwestward while over the Philippine Sea...intensifies to a Major Typhoon (Category 3)...about 509 km East of Virac, Catanduanes [2PM JUN 16: 13.4N 128.9E @ 185kph].
SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Accelerating rapidly towards the north while to the east of Extreme Northern Luzon...still intensifying...about 559 km East of Aparri, Cagayan [2PM JUN 17: 18.3N 127.0E @ 205kph].
MONDAY AFTERNOON: Starts to weaken as it begins its recurvature towards the NNE in the direction of Okinawa and Ryukyu Islands...about 319 km SSW of Okinawa, Japan [2PM JUN 18: 23.7N 127.1E @ 195kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

CLOUD-FILLED EYE - over water (Philippine Sea). Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - over water (Philippine Sea). Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - over water (Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-100 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - over water (Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas Cloudy/Rainy Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 330 mm (high) along areas near the center of GUCHOL (BUTCHOY). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

PAGASA Philippine Storm Warnings Signals

Kindly visit: The official PAGASA Website to view the Signals hoisted

External Links for TY GUCHOL (BUTCHOY)

PAGASA@Twitter: Hourly Updates
View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0512.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
NASA TRMM Page: GUCHOL's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop






>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

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1 comment:

apple said...

According to the Current Events in Philippines new, the typhoon with international name Talim will be the 3rd typhoon that will hit the Philippines this year. They will name it Carina once it hit the Philippines are of responsibility.