Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Tropical Storm MELOR (NONA) Update Number 002

Tropical Storm MELOR (NONA) Update Number 002

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TROPICAL STORM MELOR (NONA) UPDATE NUMBER 002
Issued at: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Saturday 12 December 2015
Next Update: Sunday Morning, 13 December 2015

Tropical Storm MELOR has further gained strength as it moves across the warm waters in the eastern part of the Philippine Sea. It may pose a serious threat to Bicol Region and Eastern Visayas early next week.

MELOR (NONA) will enhance the Northeast Monsoon (Hanging Amihan) bringing occasional rain showers with some thunderstorms across the Northern and Eastern Sections of Luzon beginning next week. Residents are advised to take precautionary measures against possible flashfloods or landslides especially during heavy downpour.

Residents and visitors along Eastern and Southern Luzon incl. Bicol Region and Eastern Visayas should closely monitor the development of TS MELOR (NONA).

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

DIRECT CYCLONE HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be directly affected or that are being directly affected by the hazards generated by this current tropical cyclone.

None for the next 36 hours.

CURRENT CYCLONE INFORMATION

As of 5:00 PM PhT today, December 12...0900 GMT.

Classification/Name: TS MELOR (NONA)
Location: Over the eastern part of the Philippine Sea...(near 11.0N 133.0E)
About: 831 km east-southeast of Borongan City, Samar...or 988 km east-southeast of Virac, Catanduanes
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 95 kph near the center...Gustiness: 120 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near and southeast of the center): 50 to 250 mm [Moderate to Heavy]
Minimum Central Pressure: 985 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 555 km (Small)
Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): Near the center
Past Movement: West-Northwest @ 19 kph
Forecast Movement: West-Northwest @ 21 kph
Towards: Bicol Region

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK

TS MELOR (NONA) is expected to continue moving west-northwest throughout the outlook period. On the forecast track, MELOR (NONA) shall traverse the eastern and central parts of the Philippine Sea through Monday afternoon (Dec 14).

TS MELOR (NONA) is forecast to intensify into a Typhoon on Sunday afternoon (Dec 13) and will continue gaining strength through 48 hours.

The following is the 3-day forecast outlook summary* for this system:

SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Intensifies into a Typhoon as it moves WNW across the Eastern and Central parts of the Philippine Sea...about 436 km east-northeast of Borongan City, Eastern Samar [2PM DEC 13: 12.5N 129.3E @ 120kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH.
MONDAY AFTERNOON: Still intensifying as it slightly turns to the west across the Central through the Western part of the Philippine Sea...about 172 km east-southeast of Virac, Catanduanes [2PM DEC 14: 13.1N 125.8E @ 150kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens slightly and bends further to the west...crossing the southern part of the Bicol Region...about 55 km west-southwest of Metro Naga [2PM DEC 15: 13.3N 122.8E @ 130kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

*Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

ADDITIONAL DISTANCES

Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Sat Dec 12, 2015
Location of Center: Near 11.0º N Lat 133.0º E Lon
Distance 1: 797 km E of Guiuan, Eastern Samar
Distance 2: 929 km ESE of Catarman, Northern Samar
Distance 3: 1038 km ESE of Legazpi City, Albay
Distance 4: 1001 km ESE of Sorsogon City, Sorsogon
Distance 5: 1100 km ESE of Metro Naga